Friends, the market is getting more and more thrilling. Before the opening today, many people said that the U.S. stock market would fall, and the China concept stock index would plummet, so A-shares would definitely accelerate the decline today;

As a result, after A-shares opened low today, they began to rise. After pulling up, they took another dive, and then were pulled up again. The broad market index fluctuated and rose in waves;

Don't you all realize? Many people in the market now lack independent thinking. Since the end of the fast bull market, the bearish voices have attracted enough attention. What are your thoughts?

For those who have their own judgment ability, they may not be easily swayed by the rhythm, but what about novice stock investors? It's easy to chase high after the festival, and then cut meat when the panic is magnified. After waiting for the time to exchange for space and pull up again, they regret it once more.

After the market closed yesterday, everyone generally did not look good on today. I posted that too many people were bearish, so today is the day to rebound and counterattack. I also analyzed yesterday's decline and the recent market panic for everyone, and summarized it as follows:

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1. Now that the fast bull market is over, the policy support for the slow bull market target will not change. This round of policy bull market has not ended yet, so don't change your belief easily;

2. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, global funds began to flow. A-shares are ready to take over, and policies strongly attract foreign capital inflow. However, the Federal Reserve will not give up easily and let funds flow out of the U.S. market, so it constantly disturbs the rhythm of A-shares' rise.

Especially yesterday, the market performance was very strange. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell collectively, the yuan exchange rate depreciated rapidly, and the Federal Reserve hinted again that there might be an expectation of interest rate hikes, which made some funds warm up their risk aversion.

In addition, the recent U.S. non-farm data is very beautiful, sending out a strong economic signal, the U.S. dollar index is strong, some funds flow back to the U.S. market, and form obvious pressure on A-shares;

3. The key is that there are still some foreign institutions working with domestic capital. Foreign media institutions are mainly responsible for expectation management and often release some short essays to disturb market trading emotions. Many people start to use short essays to speculate on stocks, which is somewhat ridiculous.Then, domestic and foreign capital joined forces to use stock index futures or the A50 index to short the market, harvesting new investors and forcing many to sell at a loss when the market falls and chase the rise when it rises;

4. Finally, under the herd effect in the market, too many people blindly follow the bearish sentiment without thinking, any minor fluctuation is deliberately magnified, and any rebound could become a reason for those funds to exit.

From the above, it can be seen that the current market sentiment is very complex, with too many people either being led by the rhythm or only focusing on whether they can make quick money after entering, or wanting to take a gamble and leave.

Although the market has corrected now, at least this round of policy-driven bull market has given many people the opportunity to break even and allowed many stocks that had been falling continuously to experience a rapid explosive rise.

Even though some stocks have fallen back quite a bit, compared to before, most stocks have not returned to the starting point, and sectors such as banks, real estate, brokerages, and technology, which are more obviously driven by policy benefits, have also begun to prepare for a second round of explosive growth.

Without the push of this policy-driven bull market, many people might still not see hope. The purpose of what I'm saying is actually to tell those who chase highs that they must calm down. The way to save from chasing highs is not necessarily to cut losses. Since the first step was taken impulsively, it is even more important to remain rational in the next steps.

Why do I say that everyone must be rational and not have a mentality of a fast bull market?

1. First of all, the purpose of this bull market is threefold:

One is to attract foreign capital to enter and take over the global capital reconfiguration after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut;

The second is to maintain the policy to stabilize the real estate market and resolve local debt;Thirdly, the economic recovery cycle has begun, boosting confidence in the capital market;

At present, these three goals have hardly been achieved. Attracting global funds is a financial battle between us and the United States, especially during the period from now until the U.S. election in November, financial games will become more intense;

In terms of the domestic market, policies have been issued, and it is inevitable that we will not give up without breaking through Loulan. Tomorrow, at 10 a.m. on Thursday, the State Council Information Office will hold another press conference, which is related to real estate. This is a continuation of the major moves for the real estate industry.

For the stock market, economic support is the key for the stock market to move out of a long bull market. Even if a wave of leveraged funds pushes the stock market up now, if the economy does not show a significant improvement, and local debt is not resolved, the bubble will eventually burst, and many people may lose more money.

Don't think that in the stock market, everyone's behavior can overcome emotions; don't think that as long as the stock market rises, even if the leverage eventually breaks, you can escape. The more crazy the rise, the more people will lose their rationality. Making money will only continue to increase their bets, and in the end, they will be vulnerable.

Therefore, due to the relatively high internal and external pressures, this fast bull market may just be a spark. After calming down, the real market will begin. At present, it is the adjustment phase of the bull market.

Secondly, policy benefits continue, and funds are already preparing for tomorrow:

Yesterday, the market fell sharply, and after the market closed, the State Council Information Office made a statement, which was obviously to stabilize the market's emotions. Now the higher-ups also know that the external pressure on us is very great, but we will continue to release benefits. Those who can understand will wait patiently, and those who do not pay attention may only be happy when the market rises and bearish when it falls.

The direction of recent policy benefits is very obvious:

Firstly, the real estate sector, almost all the major moves that should be given have been arranged, and the goal is to stabilize the real estate market. Therefore, real estate stocks continued to rebound today, and funds are also gambling on the major moves tomorrow;Secondly, local debt reduction mainly benefits infrastructure and construction-related sectors; thirdly, the large finance sector benefits from the decline in existing mortgage loans and deposit interest rates, which helps maintain the interest spread of banks and ensures that their performance is not affected. Banks replenishing their tier-one capital is also beneficial, especially for state-owned large banks, hence high dividend stocks led by banks are favored by institutions; the securities sector, as the flag bearer of a bull market, will undergo consolidation after rising too much, and there will be a second take-off later; insurance, as an incremental source of funds in the market, will continuously be guided by policies to rise; fourthly, in the field of big technology, technological autonomy and control are emphasized, which includes both the domestic substitution of semiconductors and photoresists, and the sub-concepts related to Huawei's HarmonyOS.

In terms of the current market phase:

The first step is for securities to stimulate market sentiment; as policy benefits take effect, market funds begin to flow towards cyclical uptrends, reflected in directions such as finance and real estate, and then it may mainly be themes led by technology growth, etc.;

3. Are the bulls about to start exerting force? Here's my view:

Firstly, adhere to the concept of being bullish, have enough patience to wait, the market is not that easy to fall, there are many voices of bearishness and gap filling, which may only be considered from a technical perspective. This round is a policy-driven bull market, and the key is still to look at the strength of the policies;

Secondly, the current direction of the rise is driven by policies, such as finance, real estate, high dividend sectors like non-ferrous metals and electricity, technology, etc., which will be relatively active in the short term;

Thirdly, the bulls will not give up easily, a large amount of onlooker funds and institutional funds have not yet entered the market, but when the funds currently in the market lose patience and can't bear to gradually cut their losses, funds will slowly accumulate and take over.Currently, the main capital is intent on driving the market upwards, but the market confidence is lacking, and the bearish sentiment is too high. In response, they will take advantage of the price fluctuations to encourage bearish and skeptical funds to exit by selling their positions at a loss, ultimately facilitating a market rally.