The winds in the automotive market have shifted.

Over the past decade, many Chinese car manufacturers have made youth a primary selling point of their products, often proclaiming slogans such as "close to the young consumer group." Numerous car companies have achieved sales growth through corresponding youth-oriented strategies. However, a fact that must be faced is that in the Chinese car market, the growth of the young consumer group is slowing down, the middle-aged consumer force is rising, and the elderly consumer market is still to be developed.

The middle-aged car market will be a new blue ocean for most car companies to gain additional volume. Previously, some car companies that still took youth as the main theme have reached a point where they have to make changes, such as Geely Automobile.

Middle-aged users have become the new main melody of the Chinese car market.

In recent years, the two most obvious changes in the Chinese car market are electrification and high-endization, both of which are driven by the middle-aged consumer group.

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The Yiche Research Institute has proposed a viewpoint: energy-saving large cars are becoming a new direction for uncle users to upgrade consumption; high-endization and electrification are also very prominent in the model market share ranking of aunt car market, with the leading Model Y being a typical high-end electric vehicle. In the TOP20, apart from Sylphy, Lavida, and Sagitar, the rest are high-end models and new energy vehicles dominated by electric vehicles.

Moreover, the high-endization of car consumption requires consumers to have sufficient purchasing power. In the past two years, although the car market has been fighting on price, the real situation is that the price of passenger cars is getting more expensive as it drops. The data from the Passenger Car Association shows that the car market price has shown a continuous upward trend in recent years, with 2019 at 142,000 yuan, 2020 at 153,000 yuan, and the cumulative average in 2024 at 179,000 yuan, with August at 174,000 yuan.

Behind the rise in car prices is the increased investment in car purchases by consumers, which inevitably requires consumers to have more disposable income. An undeniable fact is that the wealth of young users is hard to surpass the long-term accumulation of middle-aged and elderly users. Under the current employment environment and multiple pressures, the income of some young people is even less than that of the retired group.

As early as 2023, Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, said that it is impossible for the Chinese consumer market to rely on young consumers, because young consumers do not have strong consumption ability, and the consumers with the most self-choice rights are consumers aged 30 to 40.Cui Dongshu told Lu Jiu Business Review that high housing prices have brought considerable pressure to the young consumer group, while the middle-aged group has more abundant funds, which can promote their consumption in the car market. On the other hand, the number of people changing cars is increasing, and the sales volume of mid-to-high-end cars is also driven by the replacement users.

It can be seen that the middle-aged consumer group can become the main force in the car market, which is indeed due to objective reasons. Young people lack financial resources, and middle-aged and elderly people have "pockets full of money", which can achieve "buy, buy, buy".

Data from the Yiche Research Institute shows that in 2021, the terminal sales volume of the middle-aged car market exceeded 10 million, with a market share approaching 50%, surpassing the youth car market and becoming China's new first segmented car market; in 2022, the middle-aged car market maintained 10 million, with a market share breaking through 50%, becoming China's new mainstream car market; in 2023, the middle-aged car market increased by 11.08%, with terminal sales volume rising to 11.44 million, and the market share rising to 52.95%, not only consolidating the position of the new mainstream car market, but also the sales volume can "punch the United States and step on the big European Union" in the global car market.

In addition, the Yiche Research Institute also has a set of data showing that from 2014 to 2023, the average car purchase age in the Chinese car market has risen from 32 years old to 40 years old, and the median age has risen from 31 years old to 38 years old, both exceeding 35 years old. It can be said that the Chinese car market will fully enter the middle-aged era, and the competition for "middle-aged" has become the core issue for many car companies.

Geely is a beat behind and must change its strategy.

Faced with the change of direction in the car market, Geely is obviously not sensitive enough. Geely launched the "Blue Action" as early as 2015, but it did not become the leader in the new energy market.

Although part of the reason is that the historical timing is not mature enough, in the rapid development of new energy vehicles from 2021 to 2023, from a technical route perspective, Geely's choice of hybrid technology in the early stage of new energy transformation is not firm enough, and has successively developed routes such as the Star Wisdom Engine technology (oil hybrid) and GHS (plug-in hybrid) with Volvo. However, from the perspective of pricing, the cost of the early oil hybrid route is high, and the pricing of electric vehicles such as the Star Yue L and Bin Yue is obviously higher than that of oil vehicles, leading to poor sales.

From the perspective of brand positioning, in addition to the high pricing of the model itself brought by oil-to-electric transformation, there is also an overlap in price bands between Geely's own brands, so consumers are easily confused, leading to no explosive models appearing in the early stage.

Similarly, facing the replacement market, Geely's product layout "crowds" in the compact fuel (including energy-saving) car market that is shrinking sharply, and has also encountered a comprehensive counterattack from BYD, which actively caters to the new trend of replacement and carries out product layout.

At present, Geely's sales composition is divided into three parts: Geely brand, Lynk & Co brand, and Ji氪 brand. According to the sales volume in September, the Geely brand basically bears three-quarters of the sales volume. From the perspective of price range, the Geely brand's Emgrand and Bin Yue focus on the sinking market of 50,000-100,000, while the Star Rui and Star Yue mainly target the 100,000-150,000 market. From this perspective, Geely's sales volume is basically still borne by models below 150,000 yuan.Currently, in the context of a micro-growth passenger car market, aside from the new energy market, users looking to upgrade or replace their vehicles represent the most significant new growth opportunity. From Geely's product matrix perspective, the ideal products suitable for upgrades and replacements lack competitive strength, which also leads to Geely appearing very passive in the market.

Looking at Geely's product layout, apart from a few models such as the Lynk & Co 07, Lynk & Co 08, Lynk & Co 09, Galaxy E8, and the Ji氪 brand, the rest of Geely's models are concentrated in the A-class and below market segments. In contrast, competitors like BYD have a more evenly distributed range of models.

Moreover, Geely may have a certain deviation from the actual demands of the consumer market. For instance, the recent marketing event of "hotpot in a Ji氪 car" has been a hot topic. An industry expert told Lu Jiu Business Review that some automakers do not have a clear understanding of the real needs of users, but instead blindly adhere to what they believe to be the users' "pseudo-needs." Alternatively, to attract traffic, they choose to create hype in marketing, while the product itself lacks standout features.

Zhongtai Securities believes that after entering the third consumption era, in addition to intelligent capabilities, the ability to grasp market demands is also one of the most important core competencies for automakers. It is also a core factor affecting the formation of differentiated advantages and will directly impact the competitive performance of automakers in the later stages.

Additionally, there is an interesting incident worth mentioning. Previously, Geely hired the Hong Kong girl group Twins to endorse the Starwish (an all-electric compact car), but many consumers felt that the group's more than 20 years of debut did not align well with the compact and commuting characteristics that the Starwish itself presented. This indirectly indicates that Geely's positioning of its product audience seems somewhat indecisive.

A positive example is Huawei, which has established an image of high-end, technologically advanced, and reliable among middle-aged consumers through a series of product launches and market promotions. Huawei's vehicles not only rely on their advantages in communication technology and intelligence but also meet the quality and comfort pursuits of middle-aged consumers by using high-quality materials and excellent manufacturing processes.

Li Ming, a senior analyst at the well-known market analysis firm IHS Markit, said: "Huawei's vehicles have successfully attracted a group of middle-aged male consumers through precise positioning and high-tech support. This first-mover advantage could form a strong brand barrier in the upcoming market competition."

Clearly, Geely has not yet brought the same level of recognition to consumers as Huawei. Industry experts say that if automakers cannot create core competencies and differentiated advantages, they will gradually become mediocre in the competition and eventually be eliminated.

All of the above objectively accelerates the urgency for Geely Automobile to meet the needs of middle-aged users.

Embracing middle-aged users, Geely still has time.Between 2024 and 2030, it is fundamentally anticipated that the Chinese youth car market will continue to contract significantly, with the market share potentially dropping to 25%, completely losing its dominant position. Automakers like Geely, which still focus on a youthful strategy, will inevitably continue to face pressure if they do not transform.

In the "Taizhou Declaration" released in September this year, Geely clearly stated its intention to promote in-depth integration and efficient convergence of internal resources, further clarifying the positioning of each brand. At this juncture, Geely needs to consider "de-youthification" to provide more options for the middle-aged car market, which has the highest market share. At the same time, it should maximize the role of each brand without internal competition and ensure that its products are more in line with market demands and more competitive.

Zhang Xiang, Secretary-General of the International Intelligent Transportation Technology Association, told Lu Jiu Business Review that Geely has achieved success in the Chinese market through a multi-brand strategy, but it needs to continuously optimize its vehicle and brand relationships, improve management and R&D efficiency, and streamline its vehicle platforms to increase profits and market competitiveness.

Additionally, Geely also needs to highlight the characteristics of each brand and target specific sub-markets. Car design should be adjusted according to different age groups to meet the needs of middle-aged consumers for high-quality interiors and practicality, as well as the pursuit of appearance and personalization by young consumers.

In fact, for automakers to cater to the middle-aged market, the key lies in the product. The competition for market sales is largely set in the early stages of product definition and layout, and the probability of turning the tide through pure market sales strategies later on is slim.

Based on Geely's existing product matrix, the Yiche Research Institute has given constructive suggestions. First, it is recommended that Geely, with its own brand as the mainstay, join forces with Lynk & Co and Zeekr to make a strong push: based on the Starship, to derive several new energy large vehicles such as Geely large SUV, Geely mid-large SUV, and Geely mid-large MPV, to promptly launch the Zeekr 009 PHEV version, to quickly optimize the Lynk & Co 09, to timely introduce Lynk & Co's tough products, and to compete together in the high-quality "uncle" car market; the new Galaxy L6 and L7 are suggested to highlight the mainstream tone, to strengthen the Star Yue L and Jia Ji L, to compete together in the mainstream "uncle" car market; to strive to improve the ride-hailing team, to actively compete in the commercial/ business "uncle" car market; to timely launch cost-effective mid-large SUVs and MPVs, and to optimize existing products such as the Emgrand and Hao Yue L, to actively cater to the self-driving and commuting demands of elderly users.

Second, it is recommended that Geely Automobile, with Zeekr as the mainstay, actively push the "fashion front": to promptly launch the PHEV or EREV versions of Zeekr 001 and MIX, to further expand market space, and to actively seize high-end female users such as 34C and 56E; to timely launch a series of small sports cars, to highlight styling while considering cost-effectiveness, and to actively attract individual female consumers; to timely incorporate small electric vehicles such as E5, Star Wish, and Panda, to fully incorporate Geely Automobile's female resources, and to actively enter the mainstream female car market.

In addition to catering to the needs of middle-aged and elderly users in the replacement and purchase market and the needs of self-driving users, Geely also needs to take Lynk & Co as the mainstay to fully optimize the original products aimed at young users, to meet the different sub-markets such as young families, young users, and young women.

Furthermore, in the face of the increasing number of middle-aged and elderly users, Geely should also pay attention to offline promotion channels, allowing more consumers to directly experience products and services. Based on face-to-face friendly communication, it is easier to gain the trust of middle-aged and elderly consumers, thus achieving a higher conversion rate.

At present, the competition in the middle-aged user market is not yet sufficient, and the market pattern has not yet been finalized. Geely still has opportunities. Based on years of accumulated technical strength and systematic capabilities, Geely can quickly optimize its product lineup. In the future, the middle-aged car market will be the new position to undertake the scale of Geely Automobile's million vehicles.