On Tuesday (October 15th) at 23:49 PM, there was a significant decline in U.S. manufacturing activity, which also raised a question mark over the robust rhetoric of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Manufacturing Index for October, released on Tuesday, plummeted from 11.5 in September to -11.9, with a market expectation of 3.6, marking a drop of more than 20 points and the largest decline since January.

Furthermore, the latest consumer survey data released by the New York Fed on Tuesday showed that the U.S. one-year inflation expectations for September remained stable at 3%, while the three-year and five-year inflation expectations increased. The three-year expectation rose from 2.5% to 2.7%, and the five-year expectation increased from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Due to the Federal Reserve's moderate expectations for rate cuts, coupled with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's cautious stance on future rate cuts expressed on Monday, the U.S. dollar continued its recent strong trend. The highest point on Tuesday reached the 103.450 level, with a decline of 0.12% as of the time of writing, reporting 103.1690. Spot gold rose by 0.67%, reporting $2,667.160 per ounce, and spot silver increased by 1.10%, reporting $31.562 per ounce.

The oil market suffered a heavy blow. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s latest monthly report downgraded the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 to 860,000 barrels per day. The gloom of demand has not dissipated, and supply-side bearish news followed. According to reports, Israel does not plan to target Iran's oil or nuclear facilities but instead will target military installations.

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Under the impact of both bullish and bearish factors, Brent crude oil futures plummeted by 4.69%, reporting $73.810 per barrel, and U.S. crude oil main contracts fell by 5.20%, breaking through the $70 level, reporting $69.430 per barrel.

In the U.S. stock market night session, the three major indices all opened slightly higher. After the opening, the index trends diverged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened high and then dived lower, touched the bottom, briefly fluctuated, and then rose and fluctuated upwards. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened high, briefly fluctuated at high levels, then dived lower, touched the bottom, slightly rose, and then fluctuated downwards.

As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.34%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.81%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.38%. On the market, 4,810 stocks rose, and 3,916 stocks fell. Among them, the cruise concept led the gain with a rise of more than 5%, and the waste management concept and anti-cancer pharmaceutical concept led the gain with a rise of more than 2%. The lidar concept, Tencent concept, platform economy concept, and Hong Kong-listed Chinese concept stocks led the decline with a drop of more than 5%.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve's Daly stated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains restrictive and is working to reduce inflation. In addition, he said that if the facts and forecasts align, there will be one to two more rate cuts this year. If inflation remains at a higher level or shows less obvious signs of decline, or if the labor market does not seem to have truly reached a sustainable pace, then fewer rate cuts may be taken.Additionally, the pressure of rebounding inflation in the United States still exists, which has shifted market expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy from significant rate cuts to moderate ones. Currently, the market generally estimates that there is an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and the possibility of two more rate cuts totaling 45 basis points for the rest of the year.

Looking at the popular industry sectors in the U.S. stock market: Materials and construction increased by 1.19%, real estate by 1.73%, retail by 1.72%, computer hardware by 1.14%, banking by 1.0%, telecommunications by 0.92%, durable consumer goods by 0.84%, utilities by 0.81%, transportation by 0.68%, food and beverage by 0.46%, media by 0.38%, internet by 0.13%, automobiles decreased by 0.29%, software services by 0.35%, energy by 2.20%, and electronics by 4.56%.

The yields on U.S. medium and long-term bonds fluctuated overnight, with a significant drop in the ten-year period:

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 8.3 basis points, reporting at 4.042%, with trading ranging from 4.033% to 4.148%.

The yield on the 3-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 0.3 basis points, reporting at 3.861%, with trading ranging from 3.844% to 3.892%.

The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 1.5 basis points, reporting at 3.956%, with trading ranging from 3.929% to 3.973%.

The yield on the 1-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 1.3 basis points, reporting at 4.197%, with trading ranging from 4.178% to 4.248%.

Popular U.S. stocks: NVIDIA decreased by 4.82%, Tesla increased by 0.66%, Apple increased by 1.39%, Microsoft decreased by 0.38%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) decreased by 4.93%, Meta decreased by 0.50%, Intel decreased by 2.07%, Qualcomm decreased by 1.81%, Amazon decreased by 0.78%, Google increased by 0.81%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) decreased by 0.65%, Coca-Cola increased by 0.44%, Micron Technology decreased by 3.38%, J.P. Morgan Chase increased by 1.37%, Bank of America increased by 1.83%, General Motors decreased by 0.29%, and Walmart increased by 1.76%.In terms of news:

On October 15th, Apple unexpectedly unveiled the new iPad mini tablet, starting at a price of 3999 yuan, which will officially go on sale on October 23rd.

On October 15th, Needham reaffirmed Google's A rating as a buy, with the latest target price set at $210.00.

The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index opened low during the night session, with the index plunging after the opening, then fluctuating downwards, breaking through the 7000-point threshold during the session, currently down by 5.32%. Popular Chinese concept stocks: Alibaba down by 4.63%, Pinduoduo down by 5.38%, JD.com down by 7.92%, XPeng down by 3.10%, NIO down by 0.95%, Li Auto down by 4.92%, Beike down by 4.68%, BeiGene down by 1.68%, NetEase down by 2.44%, iQIYI down by 4.94%, Sohu down by 3.28%, Zhihu down by 3.59%, Tencent Music down by 4.13%, New Oriental down by 5.86%, TAL Education down by 6.66%, Vipshop down by 6.75%.

Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that a strong dollar is one of the few factors that could hinder stock market prosperity. The S&P 500 index recorded its 46th historical closing high since 2024 on Monday, as investors are preparing for a new round of corporate earnings reports. The benchmark index rose again at the opening of the U.S. market. Wilson said, "One of the factors that could slow down the rebound again is the strength of the dollar. This could be one of the factors we are now observing that may disrupt the daily record highs." This rebound is robust, with participation from all sectors of the market, and driven by central banks easing monetary policy. "This situation will continue until we truly encounter a shock in the economy or face liquidity constraints."