Affected by breaking news, international oil prices plummeted in the early hours of the day, with Brent crude oil collapsing by nearly 5%, prices once pierced through $75 per barrel, and the US crude oil drop was also nearly 5%, prices pierced through $72 per barrel.

Data shows that in the early morning of Tuesday, the main crude oil contract fell by more than 4% during the trading, with the lowest price falling to 549.3 yuan per barrel.

In terms of news, Israel stated that it would strike Iran's military targets, not nuclear facilities or oil targets, which may be the main factor for the significant drop in oil prices yesterday.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told the United States that Israel would strike Iran's military targets, not nuclear facilities or oil targets.

In addition, OPEC lowered its oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year, which also had a bearish effect on oil prices.

OPEC said in its monthly report that by 2024, global oil consumption will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day, an increase of about 2%, 106,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast. It stated that this revision is mainly due to the actual data received and slightly lower expectations for some regions. With three consecutive cuts, OPEC began to retreat from the strong bullish expectations it has maintained since the beginning of the year. Even after production cuts, its demand forecast is still an outlier (higher than Wall Street banks and trading companies), at the top of the Saudi Aramco forecast range. This is about twice the forecast of the International Energy Agency.

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Institutional outlook for crude oil market

Regarding the future crude oil market, Citigroup said that it maintains the baseline forecast of $74 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $65 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, while raising the bullish scenario forecast for oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 from $80 per barrel to $120 per barrel. >>> Stock index and commodity futures fluctuate greatly, open an account immediately to seize the big market opportunity

At the same time, Guotou Futures analysis pointed out that overnight oil prices closed lower, and geopolitical premiums cooled significantly. Israel stated that it would strike Iran's military facilities instead of oil or nuclear facilities, and the possibility of a limited symbolic counterattack is relatively large. On the other hand, the OPEC monthly report released yesterday continued to lower the demand forecast for the year. Currently, the accumulation of inventory after the peak season of seasonal demand has begun to be realized, and the fundamentals are not optimistic. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices face greater pressure again.